The announcement by the ruling Party represents an acknowledgement that its limits on reproduction, the world’s toughest, have jeopardized the country’s future.
The population is graying, threatening the industrial strategy that China used for decades to emerge from poverty to become an economic powerhouse.
Births in China have fallen for four consecutive years, including in 2020, when the number of babies born dropped to the lowest since the Mao era. The country’s total fertility rate stands at 1.3, well below the replacement rate of 2.1, raising the possibility of a shrinking population over time.
The announcement splits the difference between individual reproductive rights and government limits over women’s bodies.
Prominent voices within China have called on the party to scrap its restrictions on births altogether. But Beijing, under Xi Jinping, the party leader who has pushed for greater control in the daily lives of the country’s 1.4 billion people, has resisted.
“Opening it up to three children is far from enough,” said Huang Wenzheng, a demography expert with the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based research center. “It should be fully liberalized, and giving birth should be strongly encouraged.”
“This should be regarded as a crisis for the survival of the Chinese nation, even beyond the pandemic and other environmental issues,” Huang added.
The party made the announcement after a meeting by the Politburo, a top decision-making body, although it was not immediately clear when the change would take effect. In an acknowledgment that raising the birth limits might not be enough, the party also pledged to beef up support for families but did not provide details.